[Daily steel market report] [2025-10-21]

**Today's steel market price briefing**
**Oct 21, 2025**

According to market data on October 21, 2025, the domestic steel market is generally experiencing a situation of weak supply and weak demand, with prices under pressure and a strong sense of market hesitation.

Key Market Dynamics to Watch

To understand the current market contradictions, you need to pay attention to the following core factors:

- Supply-Demand Relationship Is the Main Pressure.

The main pressure in the current market comes from the contradiction between weak demand and relatively high supply.

- Demand side: Although the nationwide daily trading volume of construction steel has slightly increased compared to the previous day, the absolute level remains low, indicating that the recovery and sustainability of end demand have not met expectations. Downstream customers have low price acceptance and generally adopt a 'purchase as needed' strategy.

- Supply side: Blast furnace molten iron production remains relatively high. For example, the impact of molten iron from this week’s blast furnace maintenance is 1.039 million tons, only 16,800 tons less than the impact from maintenance last week. Meanwhile, overall industry inventory is still high, exerting pressure on steel prices.

- Cost Support and Profit Squeeze.

 The trends in raw materials are mixed, resulting in complex cost support.

- Iron ore: Prices fluctuate, as the steel mills’ rigid demand remains high, limiting downward movement.

- Coke: There are disturbances in supply.

- Overall: Although the prices of some products (such as steel billets) have risen, the profit margin of steel mills is squeezed under the pressure on finished product prices.

- Macroeconomic Expectations and Market Sentiment

- Rising policy expectations: The important domestic meeting (the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee) was held in Beijing, intensifying market expectations for accelerated infrastructure investment and further optimization of real estate policies.

- Strong export resilience: Steel exports perform well; for example, the volume of steel leaving major Chinese ports increased 38% week-on-week, and steel billet exports in September also rose significantly year-on-year, which moderately eases domestic supply pressure.

- Cautious market sentiment: Traders mainly focus on reducing inventory to maintain cash flow and minimize business risk and financial pressure. Overall market confidence is insufficient, with a cautious and watchful attitude prevailing for the future.

Summary and Outlook 

Overall, on October 21, 2025, the steel market is caught between weak reality and strong expectations.

- Short-term outlook: Due to weak demand and ongoing inventory pressure, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term. However, cost support and macro expectations limit further downward potential.

- Key variables: Future developments need close attention to macro policy guidance (such as meeting content), actual progress of infrastructure projects, and changes in raw material prices.

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