[Daily steel market report] [2025-9-30]

**Today's steel market price briefing**
**Sep 30, 2025**

According to market data as of September 30, 2025, the steel market on that day generally showed a pre-holiday pattern of stability with slight weakness and thin trading. The market is transitioning from the "Golden September" to "Silver October," with differing opinions among market participants regarding the post-holiday situation.

Key Market Dynamics to Watch

To understand the current market contradictions, you need to pay attention to the following core factors:

- Supply-demand relationship is the core contradiction: The market overall is in a "dual-weak supply and demand" situation, but the "weak balance has slightly improved."

- Supply side: Blast furnace iron output remains high, but the limited profitability of steel mills restricts further production recovery. Notably, molten iron continues to be directed toward higher-profit coil products, causing a decrease in rebar output and an increase in plate production.

- Demand side: The peak season characteristics of "Golden September" are not evident. However, pre-holiday restocking has accelerated inventory reduction for key steel products, and apparent consumption has rebounded significantly. In late September, social inventory fell by 4.1% month-on-month, shifting from an increase to a decrease.

- Cost support remains strong: The trends of raw material prices are mixed, but overall costs remain high.

- Coke remains strong: Mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Shandong have accepted the first round of coke price hikes, providing clear cost support.- Iron ore is fluctuating: Prices have seen minor swings, but steel mills' pre-holiday restocking has largely finished, and inquiries are limited.

- Overall: Although the increase in coke prices raises cost pressure for steel mills, it also provides bottom support for steel prices, especially pig iron.

- Market sentiment and macro environment:

- Strong pre-holiday wait-and-see sentiment: The market is in holiday mode, with many merchants gradually exiting.- Improvement in macro data: China's manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing activity.

- Policy support: The full allocation of 300 billion yuan in central long-term special treasury bonds for the year, along with the commencement of major local projects, could provide support for future demand.

Summary and Outlook

Overall, the steel market on September 30, 2025, is at the juncture between a calm pre-holiday period and anticipation for post-holiday activity.

- Short-term outlook: Due to reduced demand during the National Day holiday and generally stable steel mill production, post-holiday inventories are expected to build up, so steel prices may face downward pressure in the short term and mainly exhibit weak fluctuations.

- "Silver October" expectations: Although the "Golden September" performance was underwhelming, many steel traders have higher expectations for "Silver October." Post-holiday resumption of work may bring concentrated procurement demand. If inventory reduction proceeds smoothly, the supply-demand structure is likely to continue improving.

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