[Daily steel market report] [2025-9-16]

**Today's steel market price briefing**
**Sep 16th, 2025**

According to market data on September 16, 2025, the steel market generally experienced price increases that day, supported by strong futures and cost factors, but insufficient demand limited the upward potential, showing an overall pattern of 'rising prices and shrinking volume.'

Key Points

To understand the current market contradictions, attention should be focused on the following core driving factors:

* Demand: The tug-of-war between 'strong expectations' and 'weak reality'

The market still has expectations for the 'Golden September' peak season, but the foundation for actual demand recovery is not solid. Specifically:

- Weak construction demand: Although market activity increased in September, high-level acceptance of construction steel transactions was generally moderate. Weekly rebar consumption dropped significantly by 811,300 tons year-on-year, reflecting that demand in the construction sector remains weak.

- Resilient manufacturing demand: Unlike construction materials, hot-rolled coil consumption has grown year-on-year, indicating that manufacturing demand remains resilient.

* Supply: Combination of production cut expectations and profit-driven incentives- Disruptive production cut news: On that day, it was reported that Tangshan region would implement production cuts for environmental reasons, with 40% of steel blast furnaces put on hold and coking plants extending coking time by 30%. If strictly enforced, this will temporarily tighten supply.- Gradual resumption of production: However, national data shows that this week's molten iron output rebounded significantly by 117,200 tons/day compared to the previous week, indicating that in other regions, steel mills remain motivated to produce when there is a certain level of profit.

* Cost: Strong support but internal divergence Raw material prices are the most important support for current steel prices, yet trends vary internally:- Iron ore remains strong: Iron ore prices are high, with port spot prices rising compared to the previous working day.- Coke price cuts implemented: The second round of coke price reductions has been implemented, partially relieving steel mills' cost pressure, but future trends depend on the actual implementation of Tangshan production cuts.

* Market sentiment: Led by futures and macro expectations

- Strong futures market: Black commodity futures strengthened across the board, directly boosting spot market confidence and quotations.

- Positive macro expectations: Anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and continued domestic 'anti-involution' policies jointly improved overall market sentiment.

Summary and Outlook.

Overall, on September 16, 2025, the steel market experienced price increases driven by costs and expectations, but the strength of demand remains the key factor determining future trends.Recommendations for different market participants are as follows:

- For traders: Be cautious of risks during price rises; avoid excessive chasing, consider reducing inventory to free up capital.

- For end-users: Purchase according to production needs and closely monitor policy implementation such as Tangshan production cuts.

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