[Daily steel market report] [2025-9-4]

**Today's steel market price briefing**
**Sep 4, 2025**

On September 4, the domestic steel market continued to show a weak trend. The "Golden Sep" market expected by the market did not get off to a smooth start, the recovery of terminal demand was less than expected, and the supply pressure still existed, resulting in a cautious market mentality.

In the futures market, black commodity futures were mixed. On September 3, data showed that iron ore futures closed up slightly by 0.71%, but finished product futures such as threads and hot coils still closed down, threads and hot coils fell by about 0.2%, coke fell by 0.59%, and coking coal fell by 1.25%. The spot market quotation is stable and falling, and the overall market transaction is generally weak.

Tangshan Qian'anpu billet resources were stable including tax, reported at 2950 yuan/ton, the same as the previous trading day. The main thread contract closed at 3090, down 27 or 0.87% from the previous weekday's contract.

Supply and demand relationship analysis

Supply side: production is inhibited to a certain extent. 67 coal mines in Shanxi have voluntarily shut down production due to safety, maintenance and other reasons, involving a production capacity of 80.7 million tons. At the same time, environmental protection and production restriction policies are also being implemented, which supports market sentiment and the easing of supply pressure. However, it is worth noting that despite the limited production factors, the enthusiasm of steel mills for production driven by high profits is still high, and the weekly output of the five major steel varieties reached the highest monthly level of 8.85 million tons at the end of August, which puts pressure on market supply.

Demand side: It is at a critical point in the transition from the traditional off-season to the peak season, but the downstream demand is slow to improve. Although the high temperature weather is gradually decreasing after the "white dew" solar term, which is conducive to the improvement of outdoor construction conditions, the terminal meter demand is expected to continue to rise, but the actual recovery speed is not as expected. On September 3, the national construction steel trading volume totaled 82,196 tons, a decrease of 16.99% month-on-day, indicating that the market trading atmosphere was relatively deserted. The drag effect of the real estate industry still exists, limiting the height of demand release.

Cost and profit analysis

On the cost side, with the reduction of coke, the price support has loosened, but the profitability of steel enterprises is acceptable, and the rigid demand for raw materials has not slowed down, so the marginal support of steel costs has weakened but is still resilient.

Since August, raw material prices have risen as a whole:

Iron ore: The average price of 66% grade dry base iron concentrate in Tangshan area was 970 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from the previous month; In terms of imported iron ore, the average market price of 61.5% of Australia's 61.5% powder ore in Rizhao Port was 773 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from the previous month.

Coke: Coke prices experienced three rounds of increase in August. The average price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 1364 yuan/ton, up 227 yuan/ton from the previous month.

Scrap: The average price of heavy waste in Tangshan was 2304 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous month.

Driven by the rise in raw material prices, the average monthly cost level has moved up sharply, and the cost support for steel prices has been significantly enhanced. However, at present, the profits of steel mills from high to low are billet > hot coils> threaded > cold coils, and the overall profitability has declined compared with the previous period.

Market outlook and operational suggestions

On the whole, the steel market on September 4 is still in the process of bottoming out. It is expected that the short-term market will maintain a volatile adjustment operation.