[Daily steel market report] [2025-9-2]

**Today's steel market price briefing**
**Sep 2, 2025**

September 2, 2025 is the second trading day of the traditional "Golden Sep and Silver Oct" peak season, and China's steel market as a whole shows a weak downward trend but gradually shows a downward trend. The main characteristics of the market on the day were: the futures market rebounded from a low level, the spot price fell steadily, and the market transaction improved. Specifically, the main contracts of the main varieties of steel futures market closed in green, of which thread fell 1.89%, hot coil fell 1.58%, iron ore fell 2.67%, and double coke fell more than 3%. In terms of spot, the spot price of rebar fell steadily, falling between 10-40 yuan/ton, and the spot price of hot coil and wire rod weakened across the board.

Spot market analysis

On the same day, the performance of various varieties in the spot market was differentiated, and the overall tone was "stable and weak". The following are the specific manifestations of each major variety:

Construction steel: The average price of 20mm three-grade seismic rebar in 31 major cities across the country was 3289 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. 11 of the 28 markets fell by 10-30 yuan, and the average price fell slightly by 5 yuan. Despite a slight recovery in demand, the contradiction between supply and demand continues to intensify as inventories continue to increase. At the same time, the macro side is in a window period, and the market is in a wait-and-see mood.

Hot-rolled coil: The average price of 4.75mm hot-rolled coil in 24 major cities across the country was 3423 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The market sentiment is more cautious, and the overall transaction performance is average. Mainstream hot-rolled steel mills expand hot coil production due to high profits, superimposed steel mills have a good level of orders, and are willing to support prices, which together lead to a continuous loose supply in the short term.

Cold-rolled coil: The average price of 1.0mm cold coil in 24 major cities across the country was 3948 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The market trading atmosphere is relatively calm, downstream enterprises generally adopt the strategy of on-demand procurement, and traders are not willing to stock. Long-process steel mills said that although traders are not highly motivated to order, the proportion of direct supply at the end is increasing, and the production of steel mills is basically at full capacity.

Medium and heavy plates: The average price of 20mm general plates in 24 major cities across the country was 3534 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Steel mills in some regions of North China were affected by environmental protection production restrictions, and the high capacity utilization rate of medium and heavy plates fell slightly; Downstream demand has improved slowly, and peak season demand has yet to be verified.

Macro environmental impacts

Macroeconomic and policy factors are intertwined, forming a complex impact on the steel market:

PMI index rebounded: In August, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index, non-manufacturing business activity index and composite PMI output index were 49.4%, 50.3% and 50.5% respectively, up 0.1, 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the three major indexes all rebounded, indicating that our country's economic prosperity level continued to expand as a whole.

Fed interest rate cut expectations: As the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut in September heat up, the domestic monetary policy space is also expected to open up further. Morgan Stanley predicts that the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, or every other meeting until 2026. If the Fed starts a cycle of interest rate cuts, it will provide more space for domestic monetary policy, which is conducive to improving market liquidity and benefiting commodity prices such as steel.

International trade environment: The SCO summit adopted a statement in support of the multilateral trading system, in which the heads of state of the member states issued a joint statement for the first time, reaffirming the WTO's principles of most-favored-nation treatment and non-discrimination, and calling for compliance with international trade rules. This move will help stabilize the global trade order and boost market confidence.

Overall judgment: The gradual recovery of the current market demand side and the coexistence of supply-side pressure constitute the main contradiction, and it is expected that short-term steel prices will run weakly and steadily, with a main stable decline and an adjustment range of 0-10 yuan/ton. The general direction in September is to go long on dips, and the demand in the peak season is expected to be relatively good, which can be similar to the peak season in April and May in the first half of the year.