[Weekly steel market report] [2025-8-25 to 2025-8-29]

**Week's steel market price briefing**
**August 25, 2025 to August 29,2025**

1 Main Steel Price Performance

The national steel price index stood at 3521 yuan/ton this week, down 5 yuan/ton from last week. The price trend of each variety is differentiated:

Variety           Price/Quantity         Monthly change (%)     Date     Unit

Wire                                                      3595.00               0.31                                     2025-8-22    yuan/ton

Rebar                                                   3226.00              -4.90                                     2025-8-29    yuan/ton

HRC                     3413.33               -4.39                                      2025-8-29    yuan/ton

CRC                    4000.00                 0.76                                       2025-8-29    yuan/ton

Medium Plate                                   3541.30                  4.07                                      2025-8-29    yuan/ton

GI Plate              4252.50                  -1.62                                      2025-8-29    yuan/ton

S.S steel                  13075.00                   -0.04                                     2025-8-29     yuan/ton

2 Analysis of supply and demand

2.1 Supply side: Output increases slightly, inventory accumulates

The output of large steel varieties on Friday was 8.8461 million tons, an increase of 65,500 tons month-on-month. At the same time, the total steel inventory reached 14.6788 million tons, an increase of 268,400 tons month-on-month, continuing the trend of accumulation.

The operating rate of blast furnaces was 83.2%, down 0.16 percentage points from the previous month; The capacity utilization rate of the blast furnace was 90.02%, down 0.23 percentage points from the previous month. The profit margin of 247 steel mills was 63.64%, down 1.3F month-on-month, and the narrowing of profitability had a certain impact on production enthusiasm.

2.2 Demand side: Apparent consumption rebounded slightly, but overall weak

The apparent consumption of large varieties of steel on Friday was 8.5777 million tons, up 47,800 tons month-on-month. Among them, the apparent consumption of building materials was 2.9001 million tons, up 117,500 tons month-on-month; but the apparent consumption of plates was 5.6776 million tons, down 69,700 tons month-on-month, showing the structural differentiation of demand recovery.

3 Raw material costs: continue to run at a high level

Raw material prices remain high, supporting steel prices.

4 Market outlook and future trends

Recent market expectations

For the steel market in September, institutions generally believe that there may be a weak shock pattern, but there are also some positive factors worth paying attention to:

The demand side is expected to rebound marginally: the traditional peak season "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" is coming, the impact of extreme weather is gradually subsiding, and the outdoor construction progress is expected to return to normal. The manufacturing industry has entered the production preparation cycle, and the resilience of plate demand may be strengthened.

Cost support may weaken but remains: current raw material prices continue to be high, and corporate profits are shrinking. The steel and coke game has intensified, and the eighth round of coke has risen or is difficult to land; Iron ore shipments have also gradually returned to normal, and the high prices in the early stage are expected to fall in September.

The impact of policy regulation: The "Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Iron and Steel Industry" jointly issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments proposes measures such as the implementation of precise regulation and control of production capacity and output.

On the whole, the steel market is expected to repeatedly play between "strong cost" and "weak demand" in the short term, and the price is likely to maintain a volatile pattern. The key is to pay attention to the degree of demand fulfillment in the traditional peak season of "Golden Sep and Silver Oct" and the rhythm and intensity of subsequent production reduction policies.

5 Summary: The core characteristics of the steel market in this week

From August 25 to 29, 2025, the steel market continued the overall situation of weak supply and demand and high costs. On the one hand, the demand side, especially construction steel, continues to be sluggish, although the apparent consumption has rebounded slightly month-on-month, but the overall is still weak, and inventory continues to accumulate; On the other hand, the strength of raw material prices such as coke constitutes strong cost support, so that steel prices have not fallen unilaterally and deeply in the face of weak demand, but have fallen into a shock stalemate.

This game between "strong cost" and "weak demand" is the key to understanding the current steel market.