[Daily steel market report] [2025-8-21]

**Today's steel market price briefing**
**August 21, 2025**

On August 21, the steel market as a whole showed signs of stabilization, but there was differentiation between different varieties, construction steel was slightly resistant to decline, while hot coil and other varieties were relatively weak.

Details of the day's market

Futures and spot markets:

Futures Market: The closing yield of the major black futures contracts is differentiated. The main rebar contract (RB2510) closed at 3121 points, down 1.6 points; the main Hot Coil contract (HC2510) closed at 3375 points, down 15.6 points; The main iron ore contract had a relatively strong performance, closing up 0.98%; while double coke (coking coal, coke) continued to fall, with a decline of around 1.5%.

Spot market: The price of construction steel showed stable and strong trading, and some market quotations tentatively increased between 0 and 20 yuan/tonne, but the afternoon transaction was generally followed. Hot-rolled coils and other varieties are relatively weak. The market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with transactions mostly concentrated in low-priced resources.

Macro and environmental factors:

Policy dynamics: The LPR (loan prime rate) was unchanged in August, with a 1-year LPR of 3.0% and a longer-5-year LPR of 3.5%. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange has launched pilot projects for green external debt businesses in 16 provinces and cities to encourage the use of funds for green and low-carbon projects.

According to the survey, 45% of Hebei Tangshan steel mills are planned to be overhauled in the near term in the future (pending notice), 32% of steel mills are determined to be overhauled, and the average daily impact of cast iron is about 41,800 tons. The market also circulated news of similar production restrictions in Cangzhou.

Subsequent Market Insights

Short term (1-2 weeks): Steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with limited decline. The long and short factors of the market are intertwined:

Negative factors: weak demand in the traditional off-season, continued accumulation of inventories, increased supply of some varieties, and uncertainty in the external economic environment.

Supporting factors: support remains on the cost side, the real effect of steel mill production restriction policies remains to be seen34, the market still has expectations for the traditional demand of the "Golden Sep" peak season, and the good performance of steel exports (especially billets) will help to relieve domestic pressure.

The market is expected to find a balance between these factors, and the likelihood of a large uptrend or downtrend is low.

Medium-term (1 month): The market focus will be on the actual realization of demand during the traditional "Golden Sep and Silver Oct" peak season2 and the sustainability and scope of the production restriction policy. If demand can recover as scheduled, with effective supply-side control, steel prices are expected to stabilize and recover. otherwise, you may still be under pressure.